Background and Objective:
Many startups, despite initially viable ideas, face instability in their business models when exposed to sudden environmental changes. A key reason is that business model design is often carried out without sufficient consideration of change drivers and alternative futures. This study aims to develop a foresight-based process that allows startups to test their business models against multiple plausible futures prior to implementation, thereby improving their resilience.

Method:
The process was developed through a systematic literature review combined with input from 12 experts, including academics and practitioners active in the innovation ecosystem. Data were collected using a structured questionnaire and analyzed using Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM). Content validity was ensured through expert review and refinement of the questionnaire, while reliability was confirmed using a test–retest procedure.

Results:
The analysis identified twelve steps structured within a nine-level process. These steps start from the initial business model design and extend to model reconfiguration based on plausible scenarios and the examination of vulnerable assumptions. The process integrates selected foresight tools—such as environmental scanning, stakeholder analysis, scenario planning, and assumption-based planning—adapted to the practical constraints and limited resources typical of startups.

Conclusions:
The proposed process enables startup teams to assess the robustness of their business models against potential future developments before committing substantial resources. By revealing fragile assumptions and enabling timely strategic adjustments, the process enhances early-stage decision-making. When applied alongside approaches such as Lean Startup, it provides a practical and complementary tool for strengthening business model resilience.